With Pierre-Philippe Combes, Shohei Nakamura and Mark Roberts
Revise & Resubmit in Regional Science and Urban Economics
This paper contributes to the emerging literature on the accurate and consistent definitions of cities by providing, for 53 African countries, a detailed comparison of the delineations of urban areas resulting from the application of two of the frontrunners among the new methods. We provide a detailed comparison of results from the application of the “degree of urbanization” approach (Dijkstra and Poelman 2014) with results from the "dartboard" (de Bellefon et al. 2021) approach for delineating urban areas.
With Stephan Heblich and Yanos Zylberberg
Submitted
This paper analyses paintings as expressions of their times and contexts. We exploit large repositories of paintings with time and location information and develop an interpretable convolutional network extracting the emotions conveyed through paintings. The geography described by emotions sheds light on economic development and structural changes experienced by those locations. We use the estimated mapping to predict political turmoil and economic change, and provide novel proxies for economic development, inequalities and uncertainty over time and across locations.
With Pierre-Philippe Combes, Gilles Duranton and Laurent Gobillon
Extracting features such as buildings, land-use or transportation networks depicted in historical maps provides novel insights for urban and spatial economics. Using image segmentation techniques and random forest models, these features are extracted automatically using the spectral and spatial information available at the pixel level. Our methodology is successfully applied to a collection of 19th century maps covering mainland France, and proves robust to considerable amount spectral heterogeneity both across maps and within classes.
With Pierre-Philippe Combes, Gilles Duranton, Laurent Gobillon and Frédéric Robert-Nicoud
This paper analyses the evolution of French urban areas from a historical perspective. Using building footprints extracted from collections of digitised historical maps covering mainland France in the 18th, 19th and 20th centuries, we define consistently urban areas and analyse their trajectories along the urban hierarchy. Our findings highlight increasing urbanisation with fewer and larger urban areas, consistent with agglomerations economies. Disaggregate analysis reveals significant heterogeneity, with the emergence, persistence, disappearance of urban areas.
With Stephan Heblich and Yanos Zylberberg
This paper develops methods to estimate the unobserved knowledge networks from observed similarities in visual artworks. Deep neural auto-encoders have the ability to project high-dimensional data points such as images, into latent spaces where the underlying factors of variation are disentangled and the distances between points are well defined. This property can be exploited to derive meaningful measures of distance across artworks' styles and to quantify accurately similarity and by extension, novelty. Using large datasets of digitised historical paintings, we estimate the impact of artists' mobility pattern on knowledge diffusion across space and time.
With Kristian Behrens, Christian Dippel and Stephan Heblich
This paper studies the economic geography of the North American fur trade between 1670 to 1870. European hat makers used felt made from beaver pelts to produce hats for the elite. With the Eurasian beaver nearly extinct, Europeans turned to North America, trading beaver pelts with Indigenous communities in exchange for iron goods and textiles. We introduce a computational spatial model that integrates a biological beaver growth model with detailed transport cost calculations across North America’s extensive river system, forming a "beaver gravity model". The model illustrates that the over-exploitation of beavers drove the westward expansion of the fur trade, simultaneously shedding light on spatial dynamics of Indigenous populations.
With Andre Groeger and Hannes Mueller
Existing data on building destruction in conflict zones rely on eyewitness reports or manual detection, which makes it scarce, incomplete, and potentially biased. We introduce a new convolutional transformer network architecture measuring destruction in high-resolution satellite images, while explicitly taking into account both the spatial and temporal structure of the data, while relying on comparison with pre-conflict images to increase predictive performance. Our approach allows measuring conflict intensity with unprecedented scope, resolution, and frequency.
With Stephan Heblich and Stephen J. Redding
With Pierre-Philippe Combes, Laurent Gobillon, Marie-Pierre De Bellefon and Gilles Duranton
We develop a new dartboard methodology to delineate urban areas using detailed information about building location, which we implement using a map of all buildings in France. For each pixel, our approach compares actual building density after smoothing to counter-factual smoothed building density computed after randomly redistributing buildings. We define as urban any area with statistically significant excess building density. Within urban areas, extensions to our approach allow us to distinguish core urban pixels and detect centres and sub-centres. Finally, we develop novel one and two-sided tests that provide a statistical basis to compare maps with different delineations, which we use to assess the robustness of our approach and to document large differences between our preferred delineation and the corresponding official one. See https://github.com/goclem/delineation for replication code.
With Pierre-Philippe Combes, Laurent Gobillon, Gilles Duranton and Yanos Zylberberg
A recent literature has used a historical perspective to better understand fundamental questions of urban economics. However, a wide range of historical documents of exceptional quality remain underutilised: their use has been hampered by their original format or by the massive amount of information to be recovered. In this paper, we describe how and when the flexibility and predictive power of machine learning can help researchers exploit the potential of these historical documents. We first discuss how important questions of urban economics rely on the analysis of historical data sources and the challenges associated with transcription and harmonisation of such data. We then explain how machine learning approaches may address some of these challenges and we discuss possible applications.
There is a growing interest among applied economists in using machine learning models for predictive applications. Particularly promising implementations revolve around the collection of original research data for subsequent economic analysis. In this perspective, a family of models called neural networks have proven particularly effective in dealing with high-dimensional and unstructured data, such as text or images. Despite the appeal, the lack of familiarity with algorithmic modelling has largely discouraged their application in applied economic research. This paper introduces neural networks using an approach and notation familiar to the applied economist. It provides a comprehensive understanding of their mechanisms, the problems to which they can be usefully applied, and their limitations.
Empirical studies on the geography of innovation have established that skilled workers’ mobility and collaboration networks shape the diffusion of knowledge across firms and regions. At the same time, the literature on absorptive capacity insisted on the importance of local research capabilities to take advantage of knowledge developed elsewhere. This paper investigates both phenomena in an integrated framework by assuming that mobility and networks provide access to knowledge, but the proportion of accessible knowledge effectively used for innovation depends on absorptive capacity. Such complementaries in regional research efforts are effectively captured using a spatial Durbin model in which the connectivity structure stems from mobility and collaboration patterns. Results confirm the relative importance of these two channels in the diffusion of knowledge, and suggest that human capital increases absorptive capacity. These findings have implications for the geography of innovation. While greater accessibility encourages convergence, the notion of absorptive capacity implies a self-reinforcing effect leading to divergence.
This paper investigates the patterns and determinants of inventors’ mobility across European urban areas. First, a descriptive analysis is carried out to document the dynamics of inventors’ mobility and their spatial dimension. Second, a spatial filtering variant of the Poisson gravity model is used to analyse how job opportunities and socio-professional networks influence the flows of inventors. The findings suggest that inventors’ mobility occurs primarily between large and proximate urban areas, generally located within the same country. Besides, the econometric analysis shows that employment opportunities, social networks, as well as various forms of proximity are important determinants of inventors’ mobility.
With Florence Goffette-Nagot
Cette étude a pour objectif d’estimer l’impact économique de la communauté d’universités et d’établissements de Lyon Saint-Étienne (UDL) sur l’économie de son territoire. En particulier, cette réflexion s’articule autour de deux grands axes thématiques. Le premier axe est une analyse par la demande, qui vise à estimer les retombées économiques des dépenses des établissements, des salariés, et des étudiants sur l’emploi local. Le deuxième axe est une analyse par l’offre. Il apporte un éclairage sur les relations entre l’UDL et le tissu économique local, notamment à travers la contribution de la recherche universitaire aux réseaux de publications et de dépôts de brevets. Ce document présente de manière exhaustive les méthodologies utilisées ainsi que les sources de données à disposition. Les principaux résultats de l’étude sont ensuite présentés et interprétés. Afin d’assurer un suivi dans le temps, ce document pose les bases pour la réplication et suggère des pistes d’amélioration.